September 21, 2024 | by Unboxify
As the ongoing war in Ukraine has shown, drones have become an inescapable part of modern warfare. It’s impossible to imagine a future conflict without them. Throughout history, humans have launched various objects into the skies above, but controlled attempts began notably during the First World War. Hoping to break the stalemate on the front lines through long-range aerial bombardment, the United States Army developed a device known as the Kettering Bug, an unmanned aerial torpedo considered the forerunner of the modern cruise missile.
In World War I, the development of the Kettering Bug marked a significant milestone. This effort sparked interest across various militaries, and experimentation with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) continued throughout the 20th century.
Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy also made significant strides in the development of radio-guided vehicles. The Germans, in particular, introduced vehicles like the Argos 292 into active service.
By the Cold War era, UAVs became increasingly crucial for conducting reconnaissance missions over hostile territories. The downing of a manned U-2 spy plane over the Soviet Union in 1960 dramatically increased the desire to use drones for these missions.
Israel capitalized on UAV technology during their numerous conflicts throughout the 1960s and 1970s, with drone reconnaissance playing a pivotal role in their military successes against Egypt and Syria.
The latter half of the 20th century saw drones such as the AI RQ-2 Pioneer being used for reconnaissance by the United States during the Gulf War. Remarkably, the Gulf War marked the first instance of human soldiers surrendering to an unmanned platform.
On February 16, 2001, the US Air Force successfully launched its first drone-mounted Hellfire missile over a bombing range in Nevada. This event marked a significant turning point in modern drone warfare, and by the war on terror, drones were utilized for both reconnaissance and close air support missions across Afghanistan and Iraq.
The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020 showcased how UAVs could be used in conflicts between opponents of more equal power. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan had UAVs, but Azerbaijan’s aggressive use of their drones, especially the Turkish Bayraktar TB2, stood out. These drones effectively targeted Armenian armor and artillery, significantly tipping the conflict in Azerbaijan’s favor.
Despite their effectiveness, the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh did not prove that UAVs could win conventional wars by themselves. Azerbaijan’s superior military meant that drones only reinforced existing advantages, and ground combat was still essential.
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the world witnessed the full force of modern drone warfare again. Drones demonstrated their effectiveness against modern air defenses, with Ukrainian videos showing TB2 drones destroying Russian armor and surface-to-air missile launchers.
Small, commercially available drones have been converted into weapons of war. In Ukraine, these drones are used to provide reconnaissance at a tactical level and for limited offensive actions, such as dropping grenades as improvised bombers.
The war in Ukraine has seen drones used on a scale never before seen, with thousands of these “metallic warriors” struggling in the skies and seas of the embattled nation. Groundbreaking as it is, this conflict only scratches the surface of drones’ potential in future conflicts.
Drones have also become increasingly present on the seas of the Ukrainian battlefield. Ukrainian sea drones have executed numerous attacks on Russian warships and ports, including the recent damaging of the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and Crimea.
On land, drones could find various new roles, such as acting as pack animals for infantry. Although current products are either too noisy or not mobile enough, future autonomous drones could greatly increase the carrying capacity of infantrymen, proving vitally important for the soldiers of tomorrow.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers significant opportunities for future drone development. While AI-equipped drones can follow basic commands, they’re still not adept at adapting to new threats or considering larger strategic concerns. The first truly autonomous drones will likely take on a surveillance role, as this is far less risky than deploying armed, autonomous drones.
Deeply related to AI is the concept of swarming. Modern drone swarms are currently remote-operated UAVs acting in formations, but the future could see AI allowing individual drones to behave autonomously while coordinating within a larger group. This could make swarms incredibly lethal, with drones converging at the last minute to overwhelm targets.
China is speculated to lead the world in swarming technology, having fielded swarms of up to a thousand drones for aerial shows. These swarms could be designed to overwhelm American command centers in the South China Sea, giving China a crucial advantage in any potential conflict over Taiwan.
The implications of drone technology extend firmly into geopolitical realms. Since deploying drones is viewed as less aggressive than manned aircraft, previously contested airspaces may become more aggressively challenged. South Korea and India, for example, have suggested deploying drones over contested areas to reduce risk.
Despite their impressive capabilities, drones are unlikely to fundamentally alter the nature of all future conflicts. Modern air combat is a cat-and-mouse game between aircraft and air defenses, with drones fitting into this dynamic without radically changing it.
While drones bring many benefits, they can’t entirely replace traditional, more expensive aircraft or offer the same range of capabilities.
One promising development is the concept of manned-unmanned pairing. A human pilot could control a manned aircraft and several drones, effectively extending the aircraft’s capabilities. The US military is already experimenting with Apache helicopter pilots controlling Gray Eagle drones, with the potential to destroy targets far beyond the helicopter’s usual range.
Drones are expected to play larger roles in sea and land warfare. At sea, they could be used for mine clearance and submarine detection. On land, future autonomous drones might accompany infantry, acting as supportive pack animals.
The advances in drone technology, especially in AI and swarming, represent a double-edged sword. While they offer unprecedented tactical advantages, they also pose new ethical and strategic dilemmas.
Drone warfare has a history spanning over 100 years, but it has only recently become a central component of modern military strategies. While drones offer numerous advantages and new possibilities in both conventional and asymmetric warfare, their future impact remains uncertain.
In the final analysis, drones will almost certainly be part of the future of warfare. However, whether they will **be** the future of warfare is a question that only time—and careful consideration—can answer.
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September 21, 2024 | by Unboxify
September 21, 2024 | by Unboxify
September 21, 2024 | by Unboxify
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